A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
